Contributed Talk at The Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting (BaYSM)
Date:
Impact of climate and local environment on Dengue and Zika dynamics in Brazil: A joint Bayesian spatio-temporal model
Abstract:
This study focuses on Dengue and Zika, mosquito-born viral (arboviral) diseases, which have posed a major challenge for public health in Brazil. Thanks to the multiple data sources, this study aims to deliver a spatio-temporal Bayesian hierarchical model for examining the interactions among climate, diseases distribution and environmental conditions. In detail, the objectives are (i) to jointly examine the spatial distribution and temporal variability of the arboviral diseases, and (ii) to predict the probability of outbreak of the diseases with quantified uncertainty. Here, we present the preliminary results for the North and Central-west regions of Brazil during January 2015 - June 2019 obtained by combining dynamic and multivariate spatio-temporal models within a Bayesian hierarchical approach.